Pennsylvania 2016 Election overview:
Entering the 2016 election year, any politico knew Pennsylvania was going to be a prime target for both parties. With more diverse and higher population
growth states such as Virginia, Colorado and Nevada trending Democratic, the
GOP nominee certainly could not count on replicating George W. Bush’s 2000 and
2004 paths to the White House. As an older and whiter state, Pennsylvania
presents Donald Trump with both a big opportunity and an even bigger challenge.
Despite being slightly Democratic compared to the country as a whole,
Pennsylvania has undergone considerable shifts within the state since 1988. The
ancestral Democratic base in blue- collar western Pennsylvania has become
increasingly GOP leaning, while the historically Republican and well-educated
Philadelphia suburbs now swing Democratic. Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are
perfect candidates to continue this trend and polls have shown the state to be
tight with a small Clinton edge to date. Ever since 1952, the Keystone State
has been slightly Democratic leaning compared to rest of the country.
For the purposes of this article, I will mostly
focus on the major geographic and demographic trends since the 1988
Presidential election. 1988 is a good comparison because it involves an
election where the incumbent party sought a third term with a well-qualified
but uncharismatic candidate (George H.W. Bush in 1988 and Hillary Clinton in
2016). It was also the last time the GOP won Pennsylvania in a Presidential
election. Here is an overview of the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania in
Presidential Elections over the past three decades.
Pennsylvania:
Year
|
Democratic
|
Republican
|
Margin of victory
|
U.S popular vote
|
Margin relative to the U.S. popular
vote
|
1988
|
48.39%
|
50.70%
|
R +2.31
|
R+ 7.72
|
D+5.41
|
1992
|
45.15%
|
36.13%
|
D+9.02
|
D+5.56
|
D+3.46
|
1996
|
49.17%
|
39.97%
|
D+9.20
|
D+8.51
|
D+0.69
|
2000
|
50.60%
|
46.43%
|
D+4.17
|
D+0.51
|
D+3.66
|
2004
|
50.92%
|
48.42%
|
D+2.50
|
R+2.47
|
D+4.97
|
2008
|
54.47%
|
44.15%
|
D+10.32
|
D+7.26
|
D+3.06
|
2012
|
51.95%
|
46.57%
|
D+5.38
|
D+3.86
|
D+1.52
|
As you see, Pennsylvania has retained a durable
Democratic lean. From these numbers, you may come to believe that the state has
been stable throughout the past thirty years. The exact opposite is true.
Pennsylvania has undergone significant change during this time.
First,
lets begin with a county map of Pennsylvania that is free of red and blue:
Here are the county maps of the above- mentioned elections:
1988:
George H.W Bush carried the Keystone state on
the back of a large margin in the Philadelphia suburbs. In Montgomery and
Delaware Counties, Bush received over 60% of the vote. Michael Dukakis received
over 60-65% in many southwestern counties around Pittsburgh, but it was not enough to
overcome Bush’s edge in the eastern part of the state.
1992:
In 1992, a good Democratic year, Bill Clinton
became the first competitive Democrat in the Philadelphia suburbs in
several generations. He narrowly carried Bucks, Montgomery and Delaware
counties, albeit by margins less than his national number. He also held the
traditional Democratic base in southwestern Pennsylvania while easily carrying
the state.
1996:
Bill Clinton won re-election in Pennsylvania by
roughly the same margin he won nationally. However, Clinton vastly improved in
the suburban rim around Philadelphia and slipped in western Pennsylvania. Clinton carried Montgomery, Delaware and Bucks by margins by more
than his 1992 victory but lost nearly 15% in places like Westmoreland County
around Pittsburgh.
2000:
Al Gore carried Pennsylvania the infamously
close 2000 election by a little more than 4 points. The political trends that
continue to this day were amplified. For the first time ever, a
Democratic candidate did roughly as well in the Philadelphia suburbs as in the
southwestern counties. In fact, Gore actually improved on Clinton’s 1996
numbers in Bucks, Delaware, Montgomery, Philadelphia and barely budged in
Chester. Considering Gore lost about 8% nationally compared to Clinton’s 1996
total, this was a significant Democratic trend. While Gore still carried 6 of 7
counties along the Ohio border, his number fell around 10% from 1996 in every
single one of them.
2004:
George W. Bush made Pennsylvania his top 2004
target. He visited the state more than any other in the country, a clear
indication of his desire to win. While Bush was successful nationally, he
still failed to carry Pennsylvania, losing by a 2.5-point margin. Bush made
modest gains in western Pennsylvania, flipping Greene, Mercer and Lawrence
counties from blue to red. Kerry managed to hold enough residual Democratic
voters in Fayette, Washington and Beaver counties to post small wins. Bush also
dominated the central part of the state and won places like Dauphin
(Harrisburg) and carried Lancaster by a 2:1 margin. However, Kerry managed
to perform better than Gore around Philadelphia and expanded Democratic
margins in Montgomery and Delaware to over 10%, while cutting Bush’s 2000 victory from 10% to 5% in Chester.
2008:
2008 was destined to be a strong Democratic
year from the start. Near the end of the campaign, John McCain decided to make
a last minute desperation play for Pennsylvania’s 21 electoral votes. His
strategy was to flip white non-college educated registered Democratic voters in western
Pennsylvania and run up even larger margins than George W. Bush along the Ohio
border. McCain was wildly successful, flipping Beaver, Washington and Fayette
counties into his column. His “wild success” was also enough to get him 44% of
the statewide vote and a double-digit loss at the hands of Barack Obama.
How could this happen? In addition to receiving
83% in Philadelphia, Obama won over 60% in populous Montgomery and Delaware and
carried Bucks, Chester and Berks by around 9%. Obama also won Dauphin, lowered
Bush’s 2004 32% margin in Lancaster to a mere 12% and made gains in white
working class areas such as Scranton (Lackawanna). One can also argue that
Sarah Palin was a very poor fit for educated Philadelphia area voters and a
bigger hit with non-college whites in the western half of the state.
2012:
For most of 2012, Pennsylvania was regarded as
an afterthought. It was believed that it would only go red if Mitt Romney were
to win by a few points in the national popular vote. In the final weeks of the campaign,
Romney made a play for the state but fell short by 310,000 votes and over 5%.
Romney continued the decades-long trend, expanding GOP margins in western
Pennsylvania and flipping heavily blue-collar counties such as Cambria.
Obama’s numbers also regressed in the
Philadelphia area, ending nearly 24 years of continuous Democratic gains.
Romney as a (former) northeastern moderate was also theoretically a stronger
fit for the Philadelphia area than Texas-bred George W. Bush or the
McCain/Palin ticket. Even with Romney’s impressive gains, Obama did even better
in Philadelphia (85%) and was still at 60% in Delaware, 57% in Montgomery, 50%
in Bucks and only lost Chester by a mere 529 votes. Obama also kept enough of
his 2008 gains in northeastern Pennsylvania to easily prevail. Also important
is that Romney’s gains in western Pennsylvania were conspicuously absent in
Pittsburgh’s Allegheny County. Obama won the same margin as 2008 in the
region’s largest county, blunting the force of the GOP gains in the surrounding
areas.
2016 Forecast:
Pennsylvania will be a key battleground in 2016
and possibly the tipping point state. Click here to see more: (http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/#tipping-point).
Both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump have made
the Keystone State a premier target and will invest in rallies (Trump surely
will), television ads and GOTV efforts (Hillary especially). For right now,
Clinton remains a favorite due to several factors, the most important of which
are demographic trends. Trump must make up 310,000 votes in Pennsylvania, a
difficult but not impossible task. The regions where he will attempt to accomplish his goal are mainly in the southwest around Pittsburgh and northeast near Scranton. Not surprisingly, these were his strongest regions in the April primary.
2016 GOP Primary Map
Western Pennsylvania:
Simply put, Donald Trump needs to continue the
Republican trend in this part of the Keystone State. This is the "Brexit" vote. Trump must push his
margins above double-digits in Fayette, Beaver, Mercer and probably above 20%
in Washington, Greene and Cambria. Trump also needs to at least slice into
Clinton’s expected victory in Allegheny County. Obama’s 90,000 vote margin here
offsets most GOP wins in the smaller surrounding countryside and factory towns. Trump also needs a
stronger performance near Erie and should aim to narrow Obama’s 16% margin
there. Luckily for Trump, southwest Pennsylvania was among his strongest areas
in the primary and his numbers were up to 25% better than in some suburban
Philadelphia counties. Trump must aim to gain 200,000 votes or more on Romney
here. Polls show him outperforming Romney 2012, but whether he can gain this
figure remains to be seen. What makes Trump’s task difficult is that western
Pennsylvania is smaller in absolute population than it was in 1950 despite
being over 90% white. Every year, this region shrinks by thousands due to the
loss of steel and coal jobs. Commenters sometimes forget that the Republicans have already made significant gains in Western Pennsylvania.
Northeastern Pennsylvania:
Unlike the southwestern portion of
Pennsylvania, GOP gains here since 1988 have been limited to non-existent.
There is reason to believe things may change could change this fall. Trump’s best
counties in the primary included 77% in Luzerne (Wilkes-Barre),
74% in Schuylkill and 72% in Carbon. Considering these counties are all
extremely white and working class, Trump appears primed for bigger gains. Obama
won 52% in Luzerne, 63% in Lackawanna, 43% in Schuylkill and 45% in Carbon.
Trump’s primary totals suggest he can flip Luzerne while gaining in the other
three counties along with the rest of the region outside of Monroe County. He
simply must run up huge numbers along the New York/Pennsylvania line. If
Northeast Pennsylvania shows little change from 2012, it is a sign that Clinton
is headed for a blowout victory.
South-Central Pennsylvania:
An overlooked and underreported region, the
numbers here are very crucial to whether Trump can flip the state or Clinton
hangs on. Unlike southwestern Pennsylvania, this region has quietly trended
Democratic. For instance, Bush won Lancaster County by 35% in 2000 but only 19%
in 2012. Dauphin County also flipped, going from Bush +9 to Obama +6 on the back of large African-American turnout in Harrisburg. Trump
will probably need to win at least a little ground back and runs into a major problem. Lancaster
is now 10% Latino and neighboring Berks is nearly 20%. If anything, Clinton may
gain from 2012 by winning Berks county and narrowing Lancaster to near single
digits.
Philadelphia/Philadelphia
Suburbs:
To keep things simple, Clinton may be able to
win Pennsylvania simply by dominating Philadelphia and the big four
counties surrounding the City of Brotherly Love. Obama won Philadelphia and the four suburban counties (Chester, Bucks, Montgomery,
Delaware) by nine points and around 615,000 votes. Polling shows Clinton considerably expanding this
number as well. A recent poll had her up on Trump by as much as 40. Even if this figure
is too large, as of now it appears Clinton can expand Obama’s numbers in at
least Montgomery, Delaware and Chester and possibly in slightly more
blue-collar Bucks. It is also no coincidence that a basically finished John
Kasich received near or more than 30% in Montgomery, Delaware and Chester. Many
Kasich voters are pro-free trade and college educated Republicans who continue
to resist Trump.
If the polls are any indication, Clinton may
exceed Obama’s 2008 numbers here and post a double- digit win in Chester and 25%
margins in Montgomery and Delaware. She may absolutely destroy Trump and
make his math impossible even with major gains in southwestern and northeastern
Pennsylvania. Unlike the rest of the state, the Philadelphia suburbs are still
growing and give Clinton an opportunity to add to Obama’s totals. Since 2008,
Democratic voter registration edge has also been growing in contrast to the
rest of the state. In 2013, Democrats finally gained a registration edge in
Delaware County after years of winning it by large margins at the Presidential level.
Voter registration is also a lagging indicator
regarding political trends, Democrats still have an edge in southern states
like Louisiana and Arkansas due to ancient voting patterns while Republicans
have held the upper hand in Colorado and New Hampshire even as Obama carried both.
Many of the GOP gains in southwestern Pennsylvania are likely Romney and McCain
voters finally registering Republican and vice versa in the Philadelphia area
with Obama supporters.
Romney won Pennsylvania outside the Philadelphia metro area by 305,000 votes. Trump will need to run at least 310,000 votes better than Romney if he cannot improve at all around Philadelphia. For every Romney voter that Clinton carries in southeastern Pennsylvania, the larger the number over 310,000 it becomes and the deeper the hole for Trump. If Trump cannot gain much ground in the more urban or college counties outside Philadelphia such as Allegheny, Dauphin and Centre, it is extremely questionable that he can make up at minimum 310,000 and possibly more votes from dying factory towns and rural areas alone.
Overall:
Although things can change, Pennsylvania looks
to be the biggest state in America as far as determining the winner of the 2016
Presidential Election. With Colorado, Virginia and Nevada appearing to lean Democratic in greater numbers than Pennsylvania, both sides must likely
win the Keystone State. Clinton is certainly favored at this time (as she is
nationally) but a lot can change in three months. Theoretically, Clinton can
win without Pennsylvania if she carries Florida, but Pennsylvania has been to
the left of Florida in every election over the past 40 years. Trump will likely
find his path to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue blocked if he cannot carry
Pennsylvania’s 20 electoral votes. If there is a close election, we could have
the following breathtaking scenario.
