New Hampshire
Primary:
“Iowa picks corn, New Hampshire
picks Presidents” is a longtime phrase in the Granite State. This line has
plenty of truth on the Republican end, particularly in the past two election
cycles. Mike Huckabee in 2008 and Rick Santorum in 2012 left Iowa and were dead
in the water upon entering New Hampshire. Ted Cruz appears to be no exception, he polls
around 10-15% in New Hampshire and is not expected to come close to winning.
There is one clear favorite, his
name is Donald J. Trump. Trump suffered a tough defeat in Iowa last week but is
now on more favorable turf. Trump has led almost every single poll by double
digits and can slip a good amount on election night and still be the New
Hampshire winner. Trump retains mediocre favorability ratings in the state but
his competition is much more divided here than in Iowa.
John Kasich, Marco Rubio, Chris
Christie, Ted Cruz and Jeb Bush will likely finish somewhere from 2 to 6. The only
question is exactly what order and there are many possibilities. For most of last
week, it appeared Rubio was destined for second place but then his autopilot
malfunctioned in the debate. To put it mildly, Christie ate him for dinner like
he was a Burger King value menu item. Kasich has been steadily rising and
benefits from independents being eligible to vote in New Hampshire primaries. Whoever
finishes in second may get a boost in the establishment lane and the margin will be interesting to see. This is impossible
to predict.
A successful showing by Cruz will
mean getting 13% and moving onto South Carolina. As New Hampshire is one of the
least religious states in America, Cruz is an exceptionally poor fit. If Cruz
is to win the nomination, there is a good chance he will simply write off New
Hampshire in the general election. Rubio, Kasich and Christie, especially the
later two could compete well here if they make it to November. However, expect
the star of the evening to be no one other than Donald Trump, when he wins he
will let the country know about it.
Bernie Sanders has been ahead
here since August and will win the state. Although it will look bad for Hillary, New
Hampshire with its white, liberal population is one of Bernie’s best possible
states. It also doesn’t hurt that he represents neighboring Vermont in the
Senate. The action is on the GOP side in this one.
Places to
watch:
Hillsborough and Rockingham Counties:
New Hampshire is a weird state.
In general elections, the suburban areas tend to be the most Republican area of
the state. In contrast, Democrats dominate the small towns and rural areas of
New Hampshire, particularly the western half closer to Vermont. In the 2012
election, Mitt Romney actually came out of Rockingham (52-47% Romney) and
Hillsborough (50-49% Obama) counties ahead by a combined 5,000 votes. His
problem was that he lost the small towns in the rest of the state by a
considerable margin. Rural areas in New Hampshire tend to be Democratic, a significant departure from national trends of an increasingly Republican rural vote.
The Anti-Trump’s should do well
here. The problem is that there are four of them! For this reason, a six- car
pile up in southeast New Hampshire would not be shocking with no one
far above 20%.
Hillary should also perform best
in these Boston suburban counties. They have the highest percentages of people with
post-graduate degrees (Hillary won this demographic in Iowa) and are located farthest away from Bernie’s home state of
Vermont. Sanders may still hold his own here and dominate the rest of New
Hampshire.
Rest of New Hampshire:
Trump should run better in the
rural parts of the state, even though these are more Democratic areas with the exception
of Belknap and Carroll counties. Places such as Coos County with old factory
towns such as Berlin is Trump’s base. Establishment candidates traditionally do
less well in rural New Hampshire and Kasich will probably need most of his
votes from around Boston. Rural New Hampshire is also not religious, so Cruz
should have no more success here than around Boston. That said, do not expect
Trump to dominate the rural areas completely. He only benefits because his
opposition is divided into many pieces.
Bernie will pick up huge margins
in the 2nd Congressional District, composed of mostly western New Hampshire. Counties
along the Vermont border such as Grafton, Cheshire, Sullivan and Coos could see
Bernie percentages upwards of 60-75%. Bernie should also do fine in the rural
parts of eastern New Hampshire and win places like Durham (Strafford County)
where UNH is located.
Prediction:
Donald J. Trump takes the New
Hampshire Primary by mid to high single digits, less than current polls but by
a healthy margin. The GOP establishment will regret not taking him out after
his Iowa defeat and he will be strong with his swagger back as we enter South
Carolina. His mission to Make America Great Again will take its show south with newfound confidence!
Bernie Sanders has a strong night
and easily defeats Hillary Clinton. It will look bad for Hillary to uninformed
observers but sunnier ground lies ahead for Team Clinton in Nevada, South
Carolina and Super Tuesday.
Predicted Order of Finish:
Democrats:
Bernie Sanders defeats Hillary
Clinton by 14%
Republicans:
1) Trump
2) Kasich
3) Cruz
4) Rubio
5) Jeb
6) Christie
