Iowa Democratic Caucus Preview

Iowa Democratic Caucus:

 

Originally thought to be part of Hillary Clinton’s cakewalk, she has faced a far stronger than expected challenge from Bernie Sanders in Iowa. Bernie inspires a lot of the Obama coalition and is well suited for Iowa’s mostly white liberal primary electorate. Hillary can still win without Iowa or New Hampshire but a loss here is a dent in her armor. Martin O’Malley is an afterthought as far as this caucus goes but Democrats have a 15% viability rule so his supporters could move over to Bernie and make things extremely interesting.

Places to watch:

Major population centers:

The following counties are the biggest metro areas in Iowa: Polk (Des Moines), Story (Ames), Black Hawk (Waterloo), Linn (Cedar Rapids), Johnson (Iowa City) and Scott (Davenport). Obama won all of these counties in both general elections and his 2008 Iowa Caucus victory.

Northwest Iowa:

Hillary probably needs to perform well in this corner of the state in order to prevail. It contains fewer universities and is older, less-educated than the other parts of Iowa and it’s biggest city, Sioux City is not that big of a progressive hub.

Northeast Iowa:

Obama won here in the 2008 caucuses but did not dominate. Still, it contains a large amount of white, liberal non-religious voters quite similar to New Hampshire, where Sanders is winning. If Hillary carries the 1st Congressional District she likely prevails in the state fairly easily.

Southeast/Central Iowa:

Any Bernie victory begins here, specifically in Iowa City (Johnson County). Obama won this region handily in the 2008 caucus and in both of his general election wins. Bernie will also need to win in places like Ames, Waterloo and Cedar Rapids to have a chance.

Southwest Iowa:

While Bernie may get votes in Des Moines, Hillary and John Edwards performed very well in the counties southwest of the city and this should be Hillary country in 2016.

Prediction:

Bernie gives it a valiant effort but Hillary prevails and with it, effectively wins the nomination. Bernie wins several college counties but Hillary’s organization is too much for him to overcome.

Prediction by Congressional District:

IA-1: Sanders

IA-2: Sanders

IA-3: Clinton

IA-4: Clinton