Iowa Republican Caucus Preview

Iowa Republican Caucus:

It appears Iowa will be a two- way battle between Donald Trump and Ted Cruz with Marco Rubio a distant third. While Cruz led Iowa polls for much of December and early January, it appears Trump has once again overtaken him. Trump brilliantly cast doubt about Cruz’ eligibility to be President and Obama-weary Iowa Republicans appear to have fallen for the bait. That said, Cruz can make up his polling deficit with his superior organization on Caucus Day. Trump has been too great to even bother building a get out the vote effort and it remains to be seen if it costs him or not. Marco Rubio is hoping to finish in a strong third place, although there are real doubts if anyone after Iowa will really care. If Trump wins, the media coverage will be all about him and he will revel in calling the rest of the field “losers.”

Places to watch:

Major population centers:

The following counties are the biggest metro areas in Iowa: Polk (Des Moines), Story (Ames), Black Hawk (Waterloo), Linn (Cedar Rapids), Johnson (Iowa City) and Scott (Davenport). Obama won all counties easily both times and Mitt Romney also won all of them in the 2012 Iowa Caucus. Not only did Romney win, but Santorum finished third in all of these counties except Scott. Huckabee did win 3 of these 6 counties in 2008. If Rubio is to win any place in Iowa, it will likely begin with one of these. That said, Trump is probably the favorite to finish first in most of these major counties as he runs strong with the white non-college crowd that is less religious than Cruz voters.

Northwest Iowa:

This is Cruz Country (or has to be for him to prevail). Cruz must perform well in areas Rick Santorum in 2012 and Mike Huckabee 2008 dominated. However, the problem at the moment is that Trump appears to have cut into this base a little bit.

Northeast Iowa:

Currently one of the most Democratic areas of Iowa, it has a bit of a libertarian streak. Ron Paul won several counties here in 2012 and it has a much lower rate of religious adherence than the rest of Iowa. Among GOP primary voters, expect Trump to perform relatively well in this region and Cruz to struggle.

Southeast/Central Iowa:

Another relatively non-religious area but not quite as much as the northeast part of the state. Trump should run strong here and probably must prevail by a decent margin in order to win the state. Paul also won several counties in the southeast in 2012 and although his ideology was different than Trump’s, both appeal to disaffected white voters.

Southwest Iowa:

Most of this part of Iowa lies within the 3rd Congressional District. The district is the most competitive in Iowa and one of the most competitive in all of the country. Whoever wins the presidential vote there in November likely wins the White House. It contains Des Moines along with many red counties southwest of the city. Its 2012 vote went 51-47% Obama, exactly his national number. Expect the Trump vs. Cruz battle to be decided here as well. Romney narrowly won this region in 2012 but Santorum finished strong.

Prediction:

Donald J. Trump takes the Iowa Caucuses and begins to “Make America Great Again.” He prevails by a 4% margin and proceeds to taunt the competition immediately.

Predicted Order of Finish:

1) Trump

2) Cruz

3) Rubio

4) Carson

5) Paul

6) Huckabee

7) Jeb

Prediction by Congressional District:

IA-1: Trump

IA-2: Trump

IA-3: Trump

IA-4: Cruz