Iowa Democratic Caucus Preview

Iowa Democratic Caucus:

 

Originally thought to be part of Hillary Clinton’s cakewalk, she has faced a far stronger than expected challenge from Bernie Sanders in Iowa. Bernie inspires a lot of the Obama coalition and is well suited for Iowa’s mostly white liberal primary electorate. Hillary can still win without Iowa or New Hampshire but a loss here is a dent in her armor. Martin O’Malley is an afterthought as far as this caucus goes but Democrats have a 15% viability rule so his supporters could move over to Bernie and make things extremely interesting.

Places to watch:

Major population centers:

The following counties are the biggest metro areas in Iowa: Polk (Des Moines), Story (Ames), Black Hawk (Waterloo), Linn (Cedar Rapids), Johnson (Iowa City) and Scott (Davenport). Obama won all of these counties in both general elections and his 2008 Iowa Caucus victory.

Northwest Iowa:

Hillary probably needs to perform well in this corner of the state in order to prevail. It contains fewer universities and is older, less-educated than the other parts of Iowa and it’s biggest city, Sioux City is not that big of a progressive hub.

Northeast Iowa:

Obama won here in the 2008 caucuses but did not dominate. Still, it contains a large amount of white, liberal non-religious voters quite similar to New Hampshire, where Sanders is winning. If Hillary carries the 1st Congressional District she likely prevails in the state fairly easily.

Southeast/Central Iowa:

Any Bernie victory begins here, specifically in Iowa City (Johnson County). Obama won this region handily in the 2008 caucus and in both of his general election wins. Bernie will also need to win in places like Ames, Waterloo and Cedar Rapids to have a chance.

Southwest Iowa:

While Bernie may get votes in Des Moines, Hillary and John Edwards performed very well in the counties southwest of the city and this should be Hillary country in 2016.

Prediction:

Bernie gives it a valiant effort but Hillary prevails and with it, effectively wins the nomination. Bernie wins several college counties but Hillary’s organization is too much for him to overcome.

Prediction by Congressional District:

IA-1: Sanders

IA-2: Sanders

IA-3: Clinton

IA-4: Clinton

Iowa Republican Caucus Preview

Iowa Republican Caucus:

It appears Iowa will be a two- way battle between Donald Trump and Ted Cruz with Marco Rubio a distant third. While Cruz led Iowa polls for much of December and early January, it appears Trump has once again overtaken him. Trump brilliantly cast doubt about Cruz’ eligibility to be President and Obama-weary Iowa Republicans appear to have fallen for the bait. That said, Cruz can make up his polling deficit with his superior organization on Caucus Day. Trump has been too great to even bother building a get out the vote effort and it remains to be seen if it costs him or not. Marco Rubio is hoping to finish in a strong third place, although there are real doubts if anyone after Iowa will really care. If Trump wins, the media coverage will be all about him and he will revel in calling the rest of the field “losers.”

Places to watch:

Major population centers:

The following counties are the biggest metro areas in Iowa: Polk (Des Moines), Story (Ames), Black Hawk (Waterloo), Linn (Cedar Rapids), Johnson (Iowa City) and Scott (Davenport). Obama won all counties easily both times and Mitt Romney also won all of them in the 2012 Iowa Caucus. Not only did Romney win, but Santorum finished third in all of these counties except Scott. Huckabee did win 3 of these 6 counties in 2008. If Rubio is to win any place in Iowa, it will likely begin with one of these. That said, Trump is probably the favorite to finish first in most of these major counties as he runs strong with the white non-college crowd that is less religious than Cruz voters.

Northwest Iowa:

This is Cruz Country (or has to be for him to prevail). Cruz must perform well in areas Rick Santorum in 2012 and Mike Huckabee 2008 dominated. However, the problem at the moment is that Trump appears to have cut into this base a little bit.

Northeast Iowa:

Currently one of the most Democratic areas of Iowa, it has a bit of a libertarian streak. Ron Paul won several counties here in 2012 and it has a much lower rate of religious adherence than the rest of Iowa. Among GOP primary voters, expect Trump to perform relatively well in this region and Cruz to struggle.

Southeast/Central Iowa:

Another relatively non-religious area but not quite as much as the northeast part of the state. Trump should run strong here and probably must prevail by a decent margin in order to win the state. Paul also won several counties in the southeast in 2012 and although his ideology was different than Trump’s, both appeal to disaffected white voters.

Southwest Iowa:

Most of this part of Iowa lies within the 3rd Congressional District. The district is the most competitive in Iowa and one of the most competitive in all of the country. Whoever wins the presidential vote there in November likely wins the White House. It contains Des Moines along with many red counties southwest of the city. Its 2012 vote went 51-47% Obama, exactly his national number. Expect the Trump vs. Cruz battle to be decided here as well. Romney narrowly won this region in 2012 but Santorum finished strong.

Prediction:

Donald J. Trump takes the Iowa Caucuses and begins to “Make America Great Again.” He prevails by a 4% margin and proceeds to taunt the competition immediately.

Predicted Order of Finish:

1) Trump

2) Cruz

3) Rubio

4) Carson

5) Paul

6) Huckabee

7) Jeb

Prediction by Congressional District:

IA-1: Trump

IA-2: Trump

IA-3: Trump

IA-4: Cruz

Donald J. Trump- 45th President of the United States of America

Donald J. Trump

Donald J. Trump (June 14, 1946- July 4, 2048), otherwise known as “The Donald”, “The man who made America Great Again” and “Donald Fucking Trump”, was the 45th and greatest President of the United States of America. He is widely known as the President who “Made America Great Again” and dramatically transformed the country’s demographic makeup. Trump served a record seven terms as President and managed to repeal the 22nd amendment that was instituted after Franklin Delano Roosevelt served four terms. Trump is widely known as an iconic figure and has far surpassed George Washington, Abraham Lincoln and Franklin Delano Roosevelt combined as the greatest President in the history of the United States. Trump has a spot at Mount Rushmore all to himself after replacing the old Mount Rushmore with a giant image of no one other than Donald J. Trump.

2016 Election:

Originally believed to be a long shot at winning the Republican nomination, Trump surprised everybody by steamrolling his competition. He swept the first three states (Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina) and basically clinched the nomination with a strong Super Tuesday showing. Trump won the Florida and Ohio primaries on March 15 and with that, was coronated in Cleveland the following July.

In the general election, despite trailing Hillary Clinton narrowly throughout the summer, Trump defeated her in November, winning previously Democratic states such as Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. His signature moment came in his closing statement in the final debate where he stated: “If Hillary cannot satisfy her husband, and believe me, she can’t, then how the hell can she satisfy the United States of America.!” Trump went ahead in the polls and never looked back, winning over 320 electoral votes en route to victory.

First Term:

At his inaugural speech, Trump compared himself to Jesus Christ, stating, “some of us are just born to get stuff done.” As he stepped to the podium, a construction crew of 200,000 people from rural southern towns began laying the foundation for a wall along the Mexican border, later known as the Trump Wall. This wall spread from California to Texas and eventually adorned the Trump “T” logo in over 30,000 different spots. By New Years Day of 2019, Trump had received a check from Mexico for $50 billion. The check was personally delivered to Trump Tower in Manhattan as a symbol of gratitude from the Mexican Government. Trump also personally presided over the execution of Bowe Bergdahl and stated to the media “this guy is a traitor and a loser.”

Immigration:

Within 12 hours of Trump winning the Iowa caucuses in February of 2016, the Mexican border experienced significant reverse traffic. From 2016 until 2020, over 11 million illegal immigrants self-deported and returned to their native countries. America’s electorate began to show the effects of this reverse migration, rising from only 70% white in 2016 to over 84% white in 2028 and eventually to 96% white in 2044 following the conclusion of the Make America Even Greater Again program. Trump throughout his presidency would tout his “magical ability” to make the illegals go home.

Trade:

Trump negotiated trade deals with over 150 countries, including China. Upon the finalization of the China deal, Trump stated once again that he loved the Chinese people who bought his apartments but that America needed to be great again. Within 12 months of the deal, American factories added over 20 million new jobs as Chinese sweatshops began crumbling faster than Jeb Bush’s 2016 campaign. The Chinese Government cowered at Trump’s negotiating prowess and soon ceased to pose any challenge for the United States in South Asia.

Foreign Policy: 

Trump was determined not to be undone in American history. For this reason, decided he needed to break Harry Truman’s record for atomic bombs dropped. The first bomb he dropped was on Tehran, Iran in August of 2019. The result was a quick surrender of Iran and free oil for the occupying American forces. However, Trump wasn’t done yet.

In the summer of 2027, Trump told North Korea their country was run by a “sorry loser” and turned Pyongyang into a parking lot. The nuke leveled the entire city and caused the North Korean Government to dismantle. However, South Korea initially was not interested in paying to clean up Pyongyang. The breakthrough occurred when Trump decided to allow 50% of revenues from his new casino in a rebuilt Pyongyang to go to the South Korean government.

By 2036, Trump decided he had enough. He decided that eliminating the Middle East was the goal and he was going to accomplish his mission as he had accomplished everything else in life he had desired. With a combination of nuclear weapons and ground troops, Trump took out Lebanon, Syria, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, Pakistan, Afghanistan and the Palestinian territories. He then appointed American Governors of each country he had obliterated and built a 1,000 foot statue of himself in the capital of each nation.

Make America Greater Again:

After his 2024 victory, Trump decided he wanted to make his subsequent re-elections even easier. For this reason, he led a successful effort to repeal the 13^th, 14^th and 15^th amendments. As a result, Trump proposed relocating African-Americans to Africa despite repeated assertions that “the blacks love Trump.”

By the end of the 2030s, America’s black population had declined from 13% to 3% and whites became over 96% of the country’s population according to the 2040 U.S. Census.

Death:

Donald Trump passed away at the age of 102, outliving every President in U.S History. Trump passed on July 4th, a fitting date for the man who Made America Great Again. He was entombed in a sarcophagus at Trump Tower in Manhattan, today known as the Trump Tomb. All Trump Towers had become national landmarks following his 2024 victory. His death brought about 3 months of mourning and a special episode of Celebrity Apprentice was scheduled to select his replacement.

Currency:

Following his 2036 victory, Trump teamed up with Congress and replaced George Washington on all $1 bills with no one other than Donald J. Trump. Trump reasoned that “while Washington was a good guy, times have changed and we need a higher energy person.” Trump also replaced Abraham Lincoln on the $5 bill with his daughter, Ivanka Trump. Trump justified this by saying, “we have enough ugly men on our currency and we need a face that people want to stare at.”

Economy:

During Trump’s tenure, the stock market rose exponentially. In 2016, the Dow Jones was 16,000. In 2024, it was over 75,000 and rose to 230,000 by the time he left the Oval Office. Annual economic growth was also over 8% every single year of Trump’s presidency, including four years over 15%. Trump’s explanation for this phenomenon was simple, stating that he was a “winner.”

Culture:

Trump now occupies 100% of Mount Rushmore after bulldozing the images of the lesser Presidents on the monument.

The Donald Trump Highway (Interstate 60) runs from Southern West Virginia all the way to Las Vegas. The road runs through Kentucky, Tennessee, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Texas New Mexico, Arizona and Nevada. It is an unusual interstate as it runs entirely through counties that are classified as 1) less than 15% college educated, 2) over 90% white, 3) average resident weight over 325 pounds. Trump’s images are sprinkled on billboards throughout the drive from Coal Country in West Virginia to Las Vegas. Ironically, Trump opened a casino in Las Vegas in 2033. Many of these residents along the I-60 corridor have shown their gratitude to Trump by making generous donations to the casino in the form of gambling losses. However, with an average IQ of 65 in counties located within 20 miles of I-60, questioning Trump is just not an option for these good hard working, god fearing folks.

The term “Donald Trump” has become an expression of joy. When a baseball player hits a big home run, he will often run back to the dugout and scream “Donald Trump!” as an expression of joy.

Trump’s hairstyle has also led chains such as Great Clips to feature a $10 Trump special, one dollar for every billion that Donald J. Trump was worth.

Note: This article is meant to be written around the year 2080. It might be a bit hyperbolic but a lot of Trump’s supporters believe events such as these are really destined to happen. In no way do I condone the racism of Trump or Trump supporters but this blog will not be completely about political correctness either. Enjoy the fun!