Pennsylvania: The Keystone to the White House

Pennsylvania 2016 Election overview:

Entering the 2016 election year, any politico knew Pennsylvania was going to be a prime target for both parties. With more diverse and higher population growth states such as Virginia, Colorado and Nevada trending Democratic, the GOP nominee certainly could not count on replicating George W. Bush’s 2000 and 2004 paths to the White House. As an older and whiter state, Pennsylvania presents Donald Trump with both a big opportunity and an even bigger challenge. Despite being slightly Democratic compared to the country as a whole, Pennsylvania has undergone considerable shifts within the state since 1988. The ancestral Democratic base in blue- collar western Pennsylvania has become increasingly GOP leaning, while the historically Republican and well-educated Philadelphia suburbs now swing Democratic. Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are perfect candidates to continue this trend and polls have shown the state to be tight with a small Clinton edge to date. Ever since 1952, the Keystone State has been slightly Democratic leaning compared to rest of the country.

For the purposes of this article, I will mostly focus on the major geographic and demographic trends since the 1988 Presidential election. 1988 is a good comparison because it involves an election where the incumbent party sought a third term with a well-qualified but uncharismatic candidate (George H.W. Bush in 1988 and Hillary Clinton in 2016). It was also the last time the GOP won Pennsylvania in a Presidential election. Here is an overview of the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania in Presidential Elections over the past three decades.

Pennsylvania:

Year	Democratic	Republican	Margin of victory	U.S popular vote	Margin relative to the U.S. popular vote
1988	48.39%	50.70%	R +2.31	R+ 7.72	D+5.41
1992	45.15%	36.13%	D+9.02	D+5.56	D+3.46
1996	49.17%	39.97%	D+9.20	D+8.51	D+0.69
2000	50.60%	46.43%	D+4.17	D+0.51	D+3.66
2004	50.92%	48.42%	D+2.50	R+2.47	D+4.97
2008	54.47%	44.15%	D+10.32	D+7.26	D+3.06
2012	51.95%	46.57%	D+5.38	D+3.86	D+1.52

As you see, Pennsylvania has retained a durable Democratic lean. From these numbers, you may come to believe that the state has been stable throughout the past thirty years. The exact opposite is true. Pennsylvania has undergone significant change during this time. 

First, lets begin with a county map of Pennsylvania that is free of red and blue:

Here are the county maps of the above- mentioned elections:

1988:

George H.W Bush carried the Keystone state on the back of a large margin in the Philadelphia suburbs. In Montgomery and Delaware Counties, Bush received over 60% of the vote. Michael Dukakis received over 60-65% in many southwestern counties around Pittsburgh, but it was not enough to overcome Bush’s edge in the eastern part of the state.

1992:

In 1992, a good Democratic year, Bill Clinton became the first competitive Democrat in the Philadelphia suburbs in several generations. He narrowly carried Bucks, Montgomery and Delaware counties, albeit by margins less than his national number. He also held the traditional Democratic base in southwestern Pennsylvania while easily carrying the state.

1996:

Bill Clinton won re-election in Pennsylvania by roughly the same margin he won nationally. However, Clinton vastly improved in the suburban rim around Philadelphia and slipped in western Pennsylvania. Clinton carried Montgomery, Delaware and Bucks by margins by more than his 1992 victory but lost nearly 15% in places like Westmoreland County around Pittsburgh.  

2000:

Al Gore carried Pennsylvania the infamously close 2000 election by a little more than 4 points. The political trends that continue to this day were amplified. For the first time ever, a Democratic candidate did roughly as well in the Philadelphia suburbs as in the southwestern counties. In fact, Gore actually improved on Clinton’s 1996 numbers in Bucks, Delaware, Montgomery, Philadelphia and barely budged in Chester. Considering Gore lost about 8% nationally compared to Clinton’s 1996 total, this was a significant Democratic trend. While Gore still carried 6 of 7 counties along the Ohio border, his number fell around 10% from 1996 in every single one of them.

2004:

George W. Bush made Pennsylvania his top 2004 target. He visited the state more than any other in the country, a clear indication of his desire to win. While Bush was successful nationally, he still failed to carry Pennsylvania, losing by a 2.5-point margin. Bush made modest gains in western Pennsylvania, flipping Greene, Mercer and Lawrence counties from blue to red. Kerry managed to hold enough residual Democratic voters in Fayette, Washington and Beaver counties to post small wins. Bush also dominated the central part of the state and won places like Dauphin (Harrisburg) and carried Lancaster by a 2:1 margin. However, Kerry managed to perform better than Gore around Philadelphia and expanded Democratic margins in Montgomery and Delaware to over 10%, while cutting Bush’s 2000 victory from 10% to 5% in Chester.

2008:

2008 was destined to be a strong Democratic year from the start. Near the end of the campaign, John McCain decided to make a last minute desperation play for Pennsylvania’s 21 electoral votes. His strategy was to flip white non-college educated registered Democratic voters in western Pennsylvania and run up even larger margins than George W. Bush along the Ohio border. McCain was wildly successful, flipping Beaver, Washington and Fayette counties into his column. His “wild success” was also enough to get him 44% of the statewide vote and a double-digit loss at the hands of Barack Obama.

How could this happen? In addition to receiving 83% in Philadelphia, Obama won over 60% in populous Montgomery and Delaware and carried Bucks, Chester and Berks by around 9%. Obama also won Dauphin, lowered Bush’s 2004 32% margin in Lancaster to a mere 12% and made gains in white working class areas such as Scranton (Lackawanna). One can also argue that Sarah Palin was a very poor fit for educated Philadelphia area voters and a bigger hit with non-college whites in the western half of the state.

2012:

For most of 2012, Pennsylvania was regarded as an afterthought. It was believed that it would only go red if Mitt Romney were to win by a few points in the national popular vote. In the final weeks of the campaign, Romney made a play for the state but fell short by 310,000 votes and over 5%. Romney continued the decades-long trend, expanding GOP margins in western Pennsylvania and flipping heavily blue-collar counties such as Cambria.

Obama’s numbers also regressed in the Philadelphia area, ending nearly 24 years of continuous Democratic gains. Romney as a (former) northeastern moderate was also theoretically a stronger fit for the Philadelphia area than Texas-bred George W. Bush or the McCain/Palin ticket. Even with Romney’s impressive gains, Obama did even better in Philadelphia (85%) and was still at 60% in Delaware, 57% in Montgomery, 50% in Bucks and only lost Chester by a mere 529 votes. Obama also kept enough of his 2008 gains in northeastern Pennsylvania to easily prevail. Also important is that Romney’s gains in western Pennsylvania were conspicuously absent in Pittsburgh’s Allegheny County. Obama won the same margin as 2008 in the region’s largest county, blunting the force of the GOP gains in the surrounding areas.

2016 Forecast:

Pennsylvania will be a key battleground in 2016 and possibly the tipping point state. Click here to see more: (http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/#tipping-point).  

Both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump have made the Keystone State a premier target and will invest in rallies (Trump surely will), television ads and GOTV efforts (Hillary especially). For right now, Clinton remains a favorite due to several factors, the most important of which are demographic trends. Trump must make up 310,000 votes in Pennsylvania, a difficult but not impossible task. The regions where he will attempt to accomplish his goal are mainly in the southwest around Pittsburgh and northeast near Scranton. Not surprisingly, these were his strongest regions in the April primary. 

2016 GOP Primary Map

Western Pennsylvania:

Simply put, Donald Trump needs to continue the Republican trend in this part of the Keystone State. This is the "Brexit" vote. Trump must push his margins above double-digits in Fayette, Beaver, Mercer and probably above 20% in Washington, Greene and Cambria. Trump also needs to at least slice into Clinton’s expected victory in Allegheny County. Obama’s 90,000 vote margin here offsets most GOP wins in the smaller surrounding countryside and factory towns. Trump also needs a stronger performance near Erie and should aim to narrow Obama’s 16% margin there. Luckily for Trump, southwest Pennsylvania was among his strongest areas in the primary and his numbers were up to 25% better than in some suburban Philadelphia counties. Trump must aim to gain 200,000 votes or more on Romney here. Polls show him outperforming Romney 2012, but whether he can gain this figure remains to be seen. What makes Trump’s task difficult is that western Pennsylvania is smaller in absolute population than it was in 1950 despite being over 90% white. Every year, this region shrinks by thousands due to the loss of steel and coal jobs. Commenters sometimes forget that the Republicans have already made significant gains in Western Pennsylvania. 

Northeastern Pennsylvania:

Unlike the southwestern portion of Pennsylvania, GOP gains here since 1988 have been limited to non-existent. There is reason to believe things may change could change this fall. Trump’s best counties in the primary included 77% in Luzerne (Wilkes-Barre), 74% in Schuylkill and 72% in Carbon. Considering these counties are all extremely white and working class, Trump appears primed for bigger gains. Obama won 52% in Luzerne, 63% in Lackawanna, 43% in Schuylkill and 45% in Carbon. Trump’s primary totals suggest he can flip Luzerne while gaining in the other three counties along with the rest of the region outside of Monroe County. He simply must run up huge numbers along the New York/Pennsylvania line. If Northeast Pennsylvania shows little change from 2012, it is a sign that Clinton is headed for a blowout victory.

South-Central Pennsylvania:

An overlooked and underreported region, the numbers here are very crucial to whether Trump can flip the state or Clinton hangs on. Unlike southwestern Pennsylvania, this region has quietly trended Democratic. For instance, Bush won Lancaster County by 35% in 2000 but only 19% in 2012. Dauphin County also flipped, going from Bush +9 to Obama +6 on the back of large African-American turnout in Harrisburg. Trump will probably need to win at least a little ground back and runs into a major problem. Lancaster is now 10% Latino and neighboring Berks is nearly 20%. If anything, Clinton may gain from 2012 by winning Berks county and narrowing Lancaster to near single digits.

Philadelphia/Philadelphia Suburbs:

To keep things simple, Clinton may be able to win Pennsylvania simply by dominating Philadelphia and the big four counties surrounding the City of Brotherly Love. Obama won Philadelphia and the four suburban counties (Chester, Bucks, Montgomery, Delaware) by nine points and around 615,000 votes. Polling shows Clinton considerably expanding this number as well. A recent poll had her up on Trump by as much as 40. Even if this figure is too large, as of now it appears Clinton can expand Obama’s numbers in at least Montgomery, Delaware and Chester and possibly in slightly more blue-collar Bucks. It is also no coincidence that a basically finished John Kasich received near or more than 30% in Montgomery, Delaware and Chester. Many Kasich voters are pro-free trade and college educated Republicans who continue to resist Trump.

If the polls are any indication, Clinton may exceed Obama’s 2008 numbers here and post a double- digit win in Chester and 25% margins in Montgomery and Delaware. She may absolutely destroy Trump and make his math impossible even with major gains in southwestern and northeastern Pennsylvania. Unlike the rest of the state, the Philadelphia suburbs are still growing and give Clinton an opportunity to add to Obama’s totals. Since 2008, Democratic voter registration edge has also been growing in contrast to the rest of the state. In 2013, Democrats finally gained a registration edge in Delaware County after years of winning it by large margins at the Presidential level.

Voter registration is also a lagging indicator regarding political trends, Democrats still have an edge in southern states like Louisiana and Arkansas due to ancient voting patterns while Republicans have held the upper hand in Colorado and New Hampshire even as Obama carried both. Many of the GOP gains in southwestern Pennsylvania are likely Romney and McCain voters finally registering Republican and vice versa in the Philadelphia area with Obama supporters. 

Romney won Pennsylvania outside the Philadelphia metro area by 305,000 votes. Trump will need to run at least 310,000 votes better than Romney if he cannot improve at all around Philadelphia. For every Romney voter that Clinton carries in southeastern Pennsylvania, the larger the number over 310,000 it becomes and the deeper the hole for Trump. If Trump cannot gain much ground in the more urban or college counties outside Philadelphia such as Allegheny, Dauphin and Centre, it is extremely questionable that he can make up at minimum 310,000 and possibly more votes from dying factory towns and rural areas alone. 

Overall:

Although things can change, Pennsylvania looks to be the biggest state in America as far as determining the winner of the 2016 Presidential Election. With Colorado, Virginia and Nevada appearing to lean Democratic in greater numbers than Pennsylvania, both sides must likely win the Keystone State. Clinton is certainly favored at this time (as she is nationally) but a lot can change in three months. Theoretically, Clinton can win without Pennsylvania if she carries Florida, but Pennsylvania has been to the left of Florida in every election over the past 40 years. Trump will likely find his path to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue blocked if he cannot carry Pennsylvania’s 20 electoral votes. If there is a close election, we could have the following breathtaking scenario.