Nevada Democratic Caucus

Nevada Democratic Caucus:

Bernie Sanders enters Nevada with a wave of momentum following his resounding 22 point win in New Hampshire. However, Iowa and New Hampshire are extremely white and Nevada is heavily Latino with a decently large black population. If Nevada was a primary, Hillary would easily win. The caucus format helps Bernie even things out as the electorate will likely be whiter and less Latino than a primary would have been. Nevada polls also are off enough in general elections and predicting caucus turnout is not the easiest of tasks. The few polls out there have a close race at hand but these polls are not from reputable pollsters either.

Places to watch:

Clark County/Las Vegas:

Hillary must win big here with it’s heavily Latino and black population. Bernie can win some liberal whites but they might be too hungover to caucus at 11 am. Hillary must win in Clark to offset likely losses throughout the rest of the sparsely populated state.

Washoe County and the rest of Nevada:

Bernie needs to win Washoe (Reno), which is whiter than Vegas. He also needs to do well with the few rural whites who vote in Democratic primaries and caucuses in Nevada’s rural areas.

Prediction:

Hillary wins in a squeaker. She loses whites but makes up for it by winning Hispanics and blacks by large margins to eek out a slight win.