New Hampshire Primary Preview

New Hampshire Primary:

“Iowa picks corn, New Hampshire picks Presidents” is a longtime phrase in the Granite State. This line has plenty of truth on the Republican end, particularly in the past two election cycles. Mike Huckabee in 2008 and Rick Santorum in 2012 left Iowa and were dead in the water upon entering New Hampshire. Ted Cruz appears to be no exception, he polls around 10-15% in New Hampshire and is not expected to come close to winning.

There is one clear favorite, his name is Donald J. Trump. Trump suffered a tough defeat in Iowa last week but is now on more favorable turf. Trump has led almost every single poll by double digits and can slip a good amount on election night and still be the New Hampshire winner. Trump retains mediocre favorability ratings in the state but his competition is much more divided here than in Iowa.

John Kasich, Marco Rubio, Chris Christie, Ted Cruz and Jeb Bush will likely finish somewhere from 2 to 6. The only question is exactly what order and there are many possibilities. For most of last week, it appeared Rubio was destined for second place but then his autopilot malfunctioned in the debate. To put it mildly, Christie ate him for dinner like he was a Burger King value menu item. Kasich has been steadily rising and benefits from independents being eligible to vote in New Hampshire primaries. Whoever finishes in second may get a boost in the establishment lane and the margin will be interesting to see. This is impossible to predict.

A successful showing by Cruz will mean getting 13% and moving onto South Carolina. As New Hampshire is one of the least religious states in America, Cruz is an exceptionally poor fit. If Cruz is to win the nomination, there is a good chance he will simply write off New Hampshire in the general election. Rubio, Kasich and Christie, especially the later two could compete well here if they make it to November. However, expect the star of the evening to be no one other than Donald Trump, when he wins he will let the country know about it.

Bernie Sanders has been ahead here since August and will win the state. Although it will look bad for Hillary, New Hampshire with its white, liberal population is one of Bernie’s best possible states. It also doesn’t hurt that he represents neighboring Vermont in the Senate. The action is on the GOP side in this one.

Places to watch:

Hillsborough and Rockingham Counties:

New Hampshire is a weird state. In general elections, the suburban areas tend to be the most Republican area of the state. In contrast, Democrats dominate the small towns and rural areas of New Hampshire, particularly the western half closer to Vermont. In the 2012 election, Mitt Romney actually came out of Rockingham (52-47% Romney) and Hillsborough (50-49% Obama) counties ahead by a combined 5,000 votes. His problem was that he lost the small towns in the rest of the state by a considerable margin. Rural areas in New Hampshire tend to be Democratic, a significant departure from national trends of an increasingly Republican rural vote.

The Anti-Trump’s should do well here. The problem is that there are four of them! For this reason, a six- car pile up in southeast New Hampshire would not be shocking with no one far above 20%.

Hillary should also perform best in these Boston suburban counties. They have the highest percentages of people with post-graduate degrees (Hillary won this demographic in Iowa) and are located farthest away from Bernie’s home state of Vermont. Sanders may still hold his own here and dominate the rest of New Hampshire.

Rest of New Hampshire:

Trump should run better in the rural parts of the state, even though these are more Democratic areas with the exception of Belknap and Carroll counties. Places such as Coos County with old factory towns such as Berlin is Trump’s base. Establishment candidates traditionally do less well in rural New Hampshire and Kasich will probably need most of his votes from around Boston. Rural New Hampshire is also not religious, so Cruz should have no more success here than around Boston. That said, do not expect Trump to dominate the rural areas completely. He only benefits because his opposition is divided into many pieces.

Bernie will pick up huge margins in the 2nd Congressional District, composed of mostly western New Hampshire. Counties along the Vermont border such as Grafton, Cheshire, Sullivan and Coos could see Bernie percentages upwards of 60-75%. Bernie should also do fine in the rural parts of eastern New Hampshire and win places like Durham (Strafford County) where UNH is located.

Prediction:

Donald J. Trump takes the New Hampshire Primary by mid to high single digits, less than current polls but by a healthy margin. The GOP establishment will regret not taking him out after his Iowa defeat and he will be strong with his swagger back as we enter South Carolina. His mission to Make America Great Again will take its show south with newfound confidence! 

Bernie Sanders has a strong night and easily defeats Hillary Clinton. It will look bad for Hillary to uninformed observers but sunnier ground lies ahead for Team Clinton in Nevada, South Carolina and Super Tuesday.

Predicted Order of Finish:

Democrats:

Bernie Sanders defeats Hillary Clinton by 14%

Republicans:

1) Trump

2) Kasich

3) Cruz

4) Rubio

5) Jeb

6) Christie