South Carolina Republican Primary

South Carolina GOP Primary:

After Donald J. Trump’s resounding New Hampshire victory, his train has steamrolled into South Carolina hoping for an encore. Fireworks are aplenty and Trump has been repeatedly attacked by Cruz and Rubio the past ten days. Polls show Trump with a high single digits to mid-teens lead, although some polls have the race much tighter than others. Trump has also gone somewhat crazy over the past week, making this a bit of a wildcard.

Rubio and Cruz have been bunched up in most polls here. Second place would give Rubio a solid boost heading into Nevada and Super Tuesday, although Trump has a great chance at a big Super Tuesday if he wins big in South Carolina and Nevada. Rubio would love to finish well ahead of Jeb and Kasich, possibly forcing both out of the race. Trump’s biggest concern is a 1 on 1 with Rubio, although he will possibly win a 3- way race with Cruz and Rubio and almost certainly wins the current 5 car pileup.

Places to watch:

Charleston and Beaufort Counties:

The coast is the best chance for Rubio (or any establishment candidate) to show they should get the RNC and donors’ support. Romney in 2012 won both of these counties despite losing the state handily to Gingrich. Charleston and Hilton Head have a wealthier, more-educated bloc of GOP voters compared to inland areas. If Trump emerges victorious, it’s a sign that he’s heading for a major blowout statewide.

Northeast South Carolina:

Trump’s coalition overlaps significantly with Gingrich’s winning 2012 vote in South Carolina. Horry County (Myrtle Beach) is likely one of Trump’s statewide anchors and he should run very strong in areas like Dillon, Florence, and Darlington

Rest of South Carolina:

Trump will do fine in the rest of the state, save for maybe some bad precincts around Columbia in Richland and Lexington counties and maybe a few in Greenville and Spartanburg. The Appalachian part of western South Carolina will also provide many votes for Trump. Cruz must also perform very strong here to have the slightest chance of winning.

Prediction:

Donald J. Trump takes the Palmetto State and proceeds to taunt the shit out of Cruz in his victory speech. Cruz takes second place by a meaningless point or two and Jeb does poorly enough to call it quits. Trump most importantly wins at least 6 if not all 7 congressional districts and racks up most delegates.

Predicted Order of Finish:

1) Trump

2) Cruz

3) Rubio

4) Jeb

5) Kasich

6) Carson